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Dr. Adalsteinn (Steini) Brown, co-chair of the Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table, on Tuesday said if daily mortality continues to increase under current COVID-19 restrictions, the province could see 50 to 100 deaths per day between now and the end of February.

Brown made the stark comments during a briefing about the province's modelling projections for COVID-19.

He also spoke about the impact the pandemic is having on long-term care homes, stating that in a worst-case scenario, projections show the number of deaths among residents could surpass 2,600 by Valentine's Day.

The number of daily cases was also discussed, with Brown saying if the province hits a case growth of five per cent, which is possible, the province could see more than 20,000 a day by the middle of February. Currently growth sits between three and five per cent. He said that a worst-case scenario of case growth at seven per cent, which the province has hit a few times recently, would result in more than 40,000 cases per day.

Dr. Barbara Yaffe, Ontario's associate medical officer of health, on Tuesday said there were eight new cases of the COVID-19 variant first identified in the U.K. with five linked to travel, while three are not yet known. She expressed concern that if those three are not eventually linked to travel, it would mean it is now “evidence of community spread,” which could result in the vaccine being unable to address the variant quick enough.

Ontario has reported more than 3,000 cases daily for the last week, but saw a drop below that number with 2,903 new cases reported Tuesday as well as 41 new deaths.

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