Why Putin's War Machine is Running Out of Gas

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When Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Western leaders responded with what they believed was an economic death sentence. Russian banks were frozen out of the global financial system. Exports were cut off. Oil and gas revenues were targeted. Analysts predicted GDP freefall, a financial crisis, and eventually, political collapse.
But that didn’t happen.

Two years later, the ruble has stabilized, Russian factories are humming, and the Kremlin is flush with energy revenues from China and India. Military spending has surged, industrial output in defense sectors is booming, and real wages are rising. On paper, the war economy looks red hot.
But look closer and the cracks are everywhere.

Inflation is nearing double digits. Interest rates are at 22 percent. Consumer industries are crumbling. Over a million skilled workers have fled the country, and a civilian recession is already underway. The oil market is softening. Sanctions are biting deeper. And despite years of war, the Kremlin has no clear path to victory in Ukraine.

So the question now is: how long can this war economy last?

In this video, we break down how Russia’s economy survived 2022, why it surged in 2023 and 2024, and why 2025 could mark a turning point. We’ll walk through how energy exports kept the Kremlin afloat, how sanctions were bypassed, and how Putin's military industrial complex powered short-term growth at the expense of long-term prosperity.

This is the full story of a country that’s burning through money, men, and momentum to stay in the fight.

This is Russia: Putin’s Facade

00:00 - Intro
01:03 - How We Got Here
06:52 - A Civilian Recession
09:14 - Oil Slump
11:15 - Conclusion