Navigating the Digital Battlefield: A Framework for Geopolitical Cyber Risk Assessment

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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine got everyone in the private sector from CTI analyst to board member worried that their organization would be attacked. While this concern is valid it was rarely well assessed as no formal, effective framework exists for evaluating the overlap between cyber risk, geopolitical tensions - especially armed conflict - for a given private sector organization. To address this gap, our CTI team developed a comprehensive "Framework for assessing Geopolitical Cyber Risk" that proved invaluable both during the early days of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and for assessing other potential geopolitical cyber risk flashpoints worldwide. While our CTI team developed this framework for our organization, we believe it can be used by others for determining the overlap and assessing the threats and risks organizations are potentially exposed to around geopolitical cyber risk. This framework can help CTI analysts use a data driven approach to identify potentially unknown areas of cyber risk for their organization, better assess the likelihood of these risks, and better develop indications and warnings to monitor for changes in the threat landscape. This talk will provide an overview of the framework, describe our findings at a high level, and provide resources that other teams can use to assess their own level of geopolitical cyber risk.

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SANS Cyber Threat Intelligence Summit 2024
Navigating the Digital Battlefield: A Framework for Geopolitical Cyber Risk Assessment
Lincoln Kaffenberger, Global Cyber Threat Intelligence Lead, Deloitte Global