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Why Did Russia Decide to Invade Ukraine?
Why Did Russia Decide to Invade Ukraine?
The roots of Russia’s decision to invade Ukraine go back to the era of the Soviet Union.
At that time, Russia controlled a vast expanse of land across Europe, and its borders were much easier to defend.
The northern European plain, which runs through much of Eastern Europe, didn’t extend as far into Russia, making it harder for invaders to reach the Russian heartland.
If NATO had wanted to strike, they would have had to pass through a narrow, flat region in central Germany.
After the fall of the Soviet Union, the political and security situation in Europe changed dramatically. NATO, which was originally a defensive alliance, began expanding steadily. In 1999, countries like Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic joined.
Then, in 2004, NayToe added Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
In the following years, Croatia and Albania became members in 2009, Montenegro in 2017, and North Macedonia in 2020.
As NATO continued to expand eastward, Russia became increasingly alarmed. Its greatest fear was that Ukraine— which shares a 2,300-kilometer border with Russia— might eventually be invited to join the alliance.
For Moscow, that would have been a huge strategic problem.
The idea of NATO moving closer to Russia's doorstep was something it simply couldn’t overlook. Russia's full-scale invasion began with dozens of missile strikes on cities all over Ukraine before dawn on 24 February 2022.
Russian ground troops moved in quickly and within a few weeks were in control of large areas of Ukraine and had advanced to the suburbs of Kyiv.
Russian forces were bombarding Kharkiv, and they had taken territory in the east and south as far as Kherson, and surrounded the port city of Mariupol.
November 2013 – February 2014 Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych abruptly pulls back from signing a long-anticipated free trade agreement with the European Union.
The decision sparks massive protests across the country, as many Ukrainians see the move as a step away from European integration and a tilt toward Russia.
March 2014 With Russian troops already in control of Crimea, the region’s parliament votes to secede from Ukraine and join Russia.
A public referendum follows, with 97% of voters reportedly supporting the move, though the results are widely disputed by the international community. April 2014 Tensions escalate as 40,000 Russian troops amass on Ukraine's eastern border.
Violence erupts in the Donbas region, where pro-Russian separatists clash with Ukrainian forces. April 2021 Russia ramps up its military presence near Ukraine, deploying around 100,000 troops to the border.
In response, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy calls on NATO to accelerate Ukraine's path to membership, citing growing security concerns.
On October 8, 2022, the Crimean Bridge explosion led to a strong Russian retaliation.
Nearly two years later, on August 6, 2024, Ukraine launched a major offensive inside Russian territory.
By October and November of 2024, North Korean troops had joined Russia’s war effort. By mid-November, approximately 10,000 North Korean forces were in Russia, with some actively engaging in combat in Kursk.
This is a map of Ukraine in the year 2022. The area marked in red shows Crimea, which Russia had already annexed.
This is February 2022. At this point, a critical mistake was made by the Russian generals—they assumed that taking Ukraine would be easy and spread their forces across the country.
This is the map from March 2022.
The areas marked in red and checkered show the rapid advance of the Russian army.
However,on November 22nd this is where things took an unexpected turn.
Ukraine fought back fiercely, reclaiming significant ground and shocking the Russian military.
By February 2025, the Russian army appears to be making some advances, but at a much slower pace than anticipated.
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