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Bitcoin is rising ahead of Donald Trump’s speech at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, Tennessee. Futures traders are leaning toward long positions in anticipation of potentially important statements from the former US president.

According to Cryptocurrency screener Cryptovizor, which determines the BTC/USD price based on trading results on spot exchanges, Bitcoin is trading at $67,108 at the time of writing, down 6.5% from its July 25 low. This has allowed the first cryptocurrency to recoup most of its losses from last week.

BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: Cryptovizor
“Nobody wants to short Bitcoin before the weekend,” Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research, said in a research note on July 25.

Thielen explained that market participants are expecting Trump to announce plans to create a Bitcoin strategic reserve if he is elected president in November. This expectation is keeping traders from shorting due to fears of a sharp rise in the price.

“If Trump announces a strategic reserve, Bitcoin will rise sharply,” Thielen said.

CoinGlass data shows that futures traders are heavily biased towards long positions. Even a small drop to $65,000 would put $1.11 billion in long positions at risk.

Bitcoin liquidation map. Source: CoinGlass
Political aspects and potential plans
“He is certainly paying attention to the influential crypto lobby, which has raised $150 million for the Crypto Super PAC,” Thielen said. The Crypto Super PAC is a political action committee created to support candidates who advocate for favorable regulation of cryptocurrencies. Such committees can raise unlimited amounts of money from corporations, unions, and individuals to influence political campaigns.

The analyst also recalled that the US Treasury Department has $600 billion in gold reserves, while the government has confiscated $15 billion in bitcoin.

“Trump may indicate his intention to increase this ratio to about 10% of gold reserves, if not higher,” Thielen suggested. In his opinion, even mentioning such a possibility could cause a strong reaction in the market, even before the November elections.

Asset manager Bryan Courchesne recently said that accepting bitcoin as a reserve asset is difficult, but still within the realm of possibility. He explained that the Justice Department could simply transfer the confiscated bitcoin to the Treasury Department, which would allow the latter to accumulate and store this scarce asset in the long term.

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